Biggest Change in my game that improved win rate
When I first got into NL Holdem I went through the progression of trying to bluff to win pots and although sometimes niave aggression pay off, more often than not I was getting called either by a monster hand or a more experienced player who could tell by way the hand played out that I was likely bluffing.
I still play a loose aggressive style of poker especially at 1-2 where I can handle the swings. I now very rarely bluff however I regularly semi bluff.
If I have a hand with 13 outs of more it is a great time for me to attempt to take down a pot on the flop via a raise or check raise depending on your position.
Example: You call a $10 dollar pre flop raise with 8-7Hearts in early position. There are three other callers. The flop is 4hearts, 5 of diamonds jack of hearts.
I calculate that I have 13 outs. 9 hearts for a flush and 4 sixes for a straight.
You check the flop and the player in second position bets $25 dollars. The button calls making the pot $90 dollars.
I have $250 behind me and push all in. My reasoning is this. If I receive a call I am a coin flop against an overpair. The only hand that is much of a favorite is if someone flops a set and even I’m not dominated. The worst possible scenario here is to get a call from a higher flush draw which has happened albeit rarely. In this case assuming they don’t have a pair and a higher flush draw I still may have 6 outs by pairing my 8 and 7 and also the gutshot straight draw.
The other thing to consider is that there is a good chance the other players will fold to the all in check raise. The most likely call to get here would be from an overpair and many tigher players would fold top pair very quickly when faced with this raise.
The key to this play is the odds. IF you are called you are typically 50/50 to win the hand. At least half or more of the time I make the play I pick up the pot right there without a showdown.
Note, depending on how deep stacked you are moving all in may not be necessary. If both players have 100+ big blinds then a re raise that is high enough to not provide any other draws to call would be sufficient.